Something WILL Definitely Happen in Arena TIF District Without an Arena!

TIF is not that complicated. You divert tax revenue growth from a given area for project costs.  

The CRUCIAL question is not the situation today (are tax $s being generated now) but whether the area would growth without the TIF (fancy word is the "but for" condition). 

Can anyone with any sense make a credible argument that the increment area won't grow at all for the next 25 years? Absolutely NOT!

Even the Hunden Partners report assumes that growth WILL happen in the TIF district without a new arena. 

Sooner Investments makes a clear case that this area is prime real estate. University Town CenterNorman, OK - Sooner Investment

 "UNIVERSITY TOWN CENTER is Oklahoma’s premier destinations for shopping, dining, entertainment, and lodging! Located off Interstate 35 in the vibrant University North Park district, University Town Center is a power center, developed around Legacy Park and the Legacy Park Trail. At the center of the development is the Legacy Park lake, which boasts impressive water features and fountains, as well as an amphitheater that hosts a concert series and and many other events. Legacy Park Trail will take pedestrians from the hotel district to Legacy Park, through the shopping center, and out of the development, through the city to Historic Downtown Norman and the University of Oklahoma." 

To the extent that the district will grow without a $600 Million arena spending plan, then taking 100% of tax revenue growth from the district WILL hurt city, county and school budgets. They will get less tax revenue growth during the period it takes to pay off the project debt (up to 25 years).

Don't be fooled by the attempts to avoid the real issue - it isn't what is there now, it is a matter of what will likely happen without a new arena. 

Housing, is half of the proposed development area - this can and will happen in Norman without a new arena. The Arena TIF will influence where that housing will happen and where related tax revenues will go (to City and schools or to pay off Rainer LLC's construction loan).

New Bars and restaurants (which make an arena an entertainment "district") don't put more money in people's pockets but will spread out where those entertainment dollars are spent.  If entertainment budgets are spent in the Arena TIF district INSTEAD of other areas of Norman, then city and school budgets are harmed. We call this displacement effects.

The Local Development Act even excludes the use of TIF from areas which would have had developed anyway (without the project). 

Note the TIF increment diversion area INCLUDES all yet to be developed land - even lots that will surely attract private capital in the very near future.